Alistair Overeem vs Curtis Blaydes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record20-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach80"
256 lbsWeight256 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Curtis Blaydes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alistair Overeem carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1773
If they lose-11→ 1749
If they win+11→ 1792
If they lose-13→ 1768
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemCurtis Blaydes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Curtis Blaydes66%
Alistair Overeem 34%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Curtis Blaydes a 66% favorite over Alistair Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Curtis Blaydes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1760, a 21-point edge.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Curtis Blaydes 65%.
Alistair Overeem and Curtis Blaydes share 2 common opponents: Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Sergei Pavlovich.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.