Alistair Overeem vs Evgeny Goncharov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record23-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
TBDReach-
256 lbsWeight266 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamRaty Team· 1669 avg Elo · 13 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1772
If they lose-12→ 1748
If they win+12→ 1773
If they lose-12→ 1749
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemEvgeny Goncharov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Evgeny Goncharov70%
Alistair Overeem 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Evgeny Goncharov a 70% favorite over Alistair Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1760 vs 1761), separated by just 1 points.
Evgeny Goncharov enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Evgeny Goncharov 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.