Combat Edge Intelligence

Alistair Overeem vs Frank Mir

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

47-19-0Record19-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReach79"
256 lbsWeight262 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamFrank Mir Gym

What's at stake

Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Frank Mir carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alistair OvereemNow 1760
If they win+7→ 1767
If they lose-17→ 1743
Frank MirNow 1620
If they win+17→ 1637
If they lose-7→ 1613

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1704 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
2.18
64%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.84
57%
Strike defense
39%
1.42
Takedown avg.
2.02
56%
Takedown accuracy
40%
73%
Takedown defense
55%
0.83
Submission avg.
2.02

Trajectory

Alistair OvereemFrank Mir
1600165017001750201920202021

Win method breakdown

25 (53%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
17 (36%)
Submission
9 (50%)
5 (11%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Alistair Overeem75%
Frank Mir 25%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Alistair Overeem a 75% favorite over Frank Mir in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1620, a 140-point edge.

Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Frank Mir 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.