Alistair Overeem vs Junior dos Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach77"
256 lbsWeight250 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamChampion Team
What's at stake
Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1768
If they lose-16→ 1744
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-8→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemJunior dos Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alistair Overeem66%
Junior dos Santos 34%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Alistair Overeem a 66% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1642, a 118-point edge.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.
Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos share 3 common opponents: Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Blaydes and Francis Ngannou.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.