Alistair Overeem vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
TBDReach72,0"
256 lbsWeight249 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1768
If they lose-16→ 1744
If they win+16→ 1642
If they lose-8→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alistair Overeem78%
Roy Nelson 22%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Alistair Overeem a 78% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1626, a 134-point edge.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Alistair Overeem and Roy Nelson share 1 common opponent: Alexander Volkov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.