Alistair Overeem vs Sergei Pavlovich
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record21-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReach84"
256 lbsWeight260 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamEagles MMA
What's at stake
Sergei Pavlovich is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alistair Overeem carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1774
If they lose-10→ 1750
If they win+14→ 1823
If they lose-18→ 1791
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1730 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemSergei Pavlovich
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich82%
Alistair Overeem 18%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 82% favorite over Alistair Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Sergei Pavlovich holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1809 to 1760, a 49-point edge.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Sergei Pavlovich 76%.
Alistair Overeem and Sergei Pavlovich share 3 common opponents: Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Curtis Blaydes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.