Alistair Overeem vs Stipe Miocic
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record20-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach 80"
256 lbsWeight234 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamStrong Style Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1772
If they lose-12→ 1748
If they win+16→ 1781
If they lose-16→ 1749
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1802 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemStipe Miocic
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stipe Miocic53%
Alistair Overeem 47%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Stipe Miocic a 53% favorite over Alistair Overeem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1760 vs 1765), separated by just 5 points.
Stipe Miocic enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Stipe Miocic 75%.
Alistair Overeem and Stipe Miocic share 2 common opponents: Francis Ngannou and Fabrício Werdum.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.