Combat Edge Intelligence

Aljamain Sterling vs Augusto Mendes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-5-0Record6-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
71"Reach36,0"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamSoul Fighters BJJ

What's at stake

Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Augusto Mendes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aljamain SterlingNow 1856
If they win+4→ 1860
If they lose-20→ 1836
Augusto MendesNow 1563
If they win+41→ 1604
If they lose-7→ 1556

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.45
Sig. strikes / min
2.42
53%
Strike accuracy
35%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.91
60%
Strike defense
56%
2.45
Takedown avg.
1.75
31%
Takedown accuracy
33%
45%
Takedown defense
80%
0.64
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aljamain SterlingAugusto Mendes
160017001800201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
1 (17%)
8 (32%)
Submission
4 (67%)
14 (56%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Aljamain Sterling88%
Augusto Mendes 12%Elo baseline: 84%

The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 88% favorite over Augusto Mendes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (84%).

Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1563, a 293-point edge.

Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Augusto Mendes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Augusto Mendes 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.