Combat Edge Model · Full card

ONE Friday Fights 173 predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on ONE Friday Fights 173 (October 2, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

Join the discussion Event overview

13Total bouts

12Frozen forecasts

8Close matchups

2Model / Elo splits

0Strong model leans

LockedFight card started

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 13 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

8 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Flyweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Tonglampoon MaimornForest0-0-0

Dionatha Tobias0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel miss · Tonglampoon MaimornForest won

49.4%Tonglampoon MaimornForest50.6%Dionatha Tobias

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Payakrut Suajantokmuaythai0-0-0

Andrey Mezentsev0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel miss · Payakrut Suajantokmuaythai won

49.4%Payakrut Suajantokmuaythai50.6%Andrey Mezentsev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Bantamweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Nongkhailek Dr.Knotmuaythai0-0-0

Cal Cook0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel hit · Cal Cook won

49.5%Nongkhailek Dr.Knotmuaythai50.5%Cal Cook

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight Muay Thai

Petkongfa Wor, Technoluangpusuang0-0-0

Panpakan Sor Sasiwat0-0-0

The frozen model forecast is not available for this bout yet.

Bantamweight MMAv0.7-2026-08-28

Imran Satiev6-1-0

Babar Ali10-4-0

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Imran Satiev won

56%Imran Satiev44%Babar Ali

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 45% / 55%

Flyweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Joanne La0-0-0

Yara Saleh0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel miss · Joanne La won

49.4%Joanne La50.6%Yara Saleh

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight MMAv0.7-2026-08-28

Youssef Ramadan3-1-0

Jong Jun Park5-1-0

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Jong Jun Park won

39%Youssef Ramadan61%Jong Jun Park

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50.6% / 49.4%

Flyweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Kevin Oyervides0-0-0

Hiroyuki0-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Hiroyuki won

43%Kevin Oyervides57%Hiroyuki

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 43% / 57%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

5 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Welterweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Regian Eersel0-0-0

George Jarvis0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel miss · Regian Eersel won

49.2%Regian Eersel50.8%George Jarvis

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Strawweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Kanyarat Yoohanngoh0-0-0

Aline Seiberth0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel hit · Kanyarat Yoohanngoh won

54%Kanyarat Yoohanngoh46%Aline Seiberth

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Featherweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Dzhamil Osmanov0-0-0

Ben Woolliss4-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Dzhamil Osmanov won

30%Dzhamil Osmanov70%Ben Woolliss

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 37% / 63%

Strawweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Mia Trevorrow0-0-0

Sheila Barrios0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel hit · Sheila Barrios won

49.3%Mia Trevorrow50.7%Sheila Barrios

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Fahlab ToyotaRayong0-0-0

Yugo Kato0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel hit · Yugo Kato won

49.3%Fahlab ToyotaRayong50.7%Yugo Kato

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%