Combat Edge Model · Full card

ONE Friday Fights 173 Bangkok: Buakaew vs Nat Khat Min predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on ONE Friday Fights 173 Bangkok: Buakaew vs Nat Khat Min (October 2, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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14Total bouts

14Frozen forecasts

10Close matchups

2Model / Elo splits

0Strong model leans

OpenPicks close at start

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 14 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

9 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Bantamweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Buakaew Sor Sor Pakorn0-0-0

Nat Khat Min0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Buakaew Sor Sor Pakorn50.7%Nat Khat Min

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Tonglampoon MaimornForest0-0-0

Dionatha Tobias0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Tonglampoon MaimornForest50.7%Dionatha Tobias

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Payakrut Suajantokmuaythai0-0-0

Andrey Mezentsev0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Payakrut Suajantokmuaythai50.7%Andrey Mezentsev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Bantamweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Nongkhailek Dr.Knotmuaythai0-0-0

Cal Cook0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Nongkhailek Dr.Knotmuaythai50.7%Cal Cook

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Strawweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Gaichon Sor Prawatmuang0-0-0

Tandiao Por. Prawit0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Gaichon Sor Prawatmuang50.7%Tandiao Por. Prawit

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Bantamweight MMAv0.7-2026-08-28

Imran Satiev5-1-0

Babar Ali10-3-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

56%Imran Satiev44%Babar Ali

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 45% / 55%

Flyweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Joanne La0-0-0

Yara Saleh0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Joanne La50.7%Yara Saleh

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight MMAv0.7-2026-08-28

Youssef Ramadan3-0-0

Jong Jun Park4-1-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

39%Youssef Ramadan61%Jong Jun Park

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50.6% / 49.4%

Flyweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Kevin Oyervides0-0-0

Hiroyuki0-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

43%Kevin Oyervides57%Hiroyuki

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 43% / 57%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

5 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Welterweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Regian Eersel0-0-0

George Jarvis0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Regian Eersel50.7%George Jarvis

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Strawweight Muay Thaiv0.7-2026-08-28

Kanyarat Yoohanngoh0-0-0

Aline Seiberth0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Kanyarat Yoohanngoh50.7%Aline Seiberth

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Featherweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Dzhamil Osmanov0-0-0

Ben Woolliss4-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

30%Dzhamil Osmanov70%Ben Woolliss

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 37% / 63%

Strawweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Mia Trevorrow0-0-0

Sheila Barrios0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Mia Trevorrow50.7%Sheila Barrios

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Fahlab ToyotaRayong0-0-0

Yugo Kato0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baseline

49.3%Fahlab ToyotaRayong50.7%Yugo Kato

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%