Combat Edge Intelligence

Aljamain Sterling vs Brett Johns

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Brett Johns

Brett Johns

“The Pikey”

20-5-0FeatherweightPFL

1603Solid

Tale of the tape

26-5-0Record20-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach39.00
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamChris Rees Academy

What's at stake

Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Brett Johns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aljamain SterlingNow 1856
If they win+5→ 1861
If they lose-19→ 1837
Brett JohnsNow 1603
If they win+26→ 1629
If they lose-6→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.45
Sig. strikes / min
2.86
53%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.84
60%
Strike defense
53%
2.45
Takedown avg.
4.92
31%
Takedown accuracy
49%
45%
Takedown defense
58%
0.64
Submission avg.
1.02

Trajectory

Aljamain SterlingBrett Johns
160017001800202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
4 (20%)
8 (32%)
Submission
6 (30%)
14 (56%)
Decision
10 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Aljamain Sterling86%
Brett Johns 14%Elo baseline: 81%

The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 86% favorite over Brett Johns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).

Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1603, a 253-point edge.

Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Brett Johns enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Brett Johns 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.