Combat Edge Intelligence

Aljamain Sterling vs Brian Ortega

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-5-0Record16-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
71"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamBlack House

What's at stake

Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Brian Ortega carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aljamain SterlingNow 1856
If they win+7→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1839
Brian OrtegaNow 1716
If they win+22→ 1738
If they lose-10→ 1706

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1776 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.84
53%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.38
60%
Strike defense
49%
2.45
Takedown avg.
0.93
31%
Takedown accuracy
25%
45%
Takedown defense
55%
0.64
Submission avg.
0.93

Trajectory

Aljamain SterlingBrian Ortega
1700175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
3 (19%)
8 (32%)
Submission
8 (50%)
14 (56%)
Decision
5 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Aljamain Sterling73%
Brian Ortega 27%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 73% favorite over Brian Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1716, a 140-point edge.

Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Brian Ortega 69%.

Aljamain Sterling carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.