Aljamain Sterling vs Bryan Caraway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-5-0Record22-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'9"
71"Reach68,0"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Bryan Caraway carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1862
If they lose-18→ 1838
If they win+18→ 1701
If they lose-6→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aljamain SterlingBryan Caraway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aljamain Sterling88%
Bryan Caraway 12%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 88% favorite over Bryan Caraway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1683, a 173-point edge.
Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Bryan Caraway 82%.
Aljamain Sterling carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.