Aljamain Sterling vs Marlon Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-5-0Record23-13-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'6"
71"Reach67"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Marlon Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1862
If they lose-18→ 1838
If they win+18→ 1671
If they lose-6→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aljamain SterlingMarlon Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aljamain Sterling89%
Marlon Moraes 11%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 89% favorite over Marlon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1653, a 203-point edge.
Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marlon Moraes enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Marlon Moraes 70%.
Aljamain Sterling and Marlon Moraes share 1 common opponent: Henry Cejudo.
Aljamain Sterling carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.