Combat Edge Intelligence

Aljamain Sterling vs Movlid Khaybulaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-5-0Record24-0-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'6"
71"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamFight Nights Team

What's at stake

Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Movlid Khaybulaev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aljamain SterlingNow 1856
If they win+11→ 1867
If they lose-13→ 1843
Movlid KhaybulaevNow 1840
If they win+13→ 1853
If they lose-11→ 1829

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.45
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
53%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
60%
Strike defense
TBD
2.45
Takedown avg.
TBD
31%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
45%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.64
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Aljamain SterlingMovlid Khaybulaev
18001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
6 (25%)
8 (32%)
Submission
4 (17%)
14 (56%)
Decision
14 (58%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Aljamain Sterling and Movlid Khaybulaev within a point of even.

Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1840, a 16-point edge.

Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Movlid Khaybulaev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Movlid Khaybulaev 42%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.