Combat Edge Intelligence

Aljamain Sterling vs Raphael Assunção

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

26-5-0Record28-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
71"Reach66"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Raphael Assunção carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aljamain SterlingNow 1856
If they win+7→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1839
Raphael AssunçãoNow 1707
If they win+17→ 1724
If they lose-7→ 1700

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1700 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.45
Sig. strikes / min
3.22
53%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.50
60%
Strike defense
67%
2.45
Takedown avg.
1.65
31%
Takedown accuracy
39%
45%
Takedown defense
78%
0.64
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Aljamain SterlingRaphael Assunção
1700175018001850202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (12%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
8 (32%)
Submission
10 (36%)
14 (56%)
Decision
14 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Aljamain Sterling88%
Raphael Assunção 12%Elo baseline: 70%

The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 88% favorite over Raphael Assunção in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).

Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1707, a 149-point edge.

Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Raphael Assunção 50%.

Aljamain Sterling carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.