Aljamain Sterling vs TJ Dillashaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-5-0Record17-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
71"Reach67"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamThe Treigning Lab
What's at stake
Aljamain Sterling is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — TJ Dillashaw carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1865
If they lose-15→ 1841
If they win+20→ 1783
If they lose-12→ 1751
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aljamain SterlingTJ Dillashaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aljamain Sterling79%
TJ Dillashaw 21%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Aljamain Sterling a 79% favorite over TJ Dillashaw in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Aljamain Sterling holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1763, a 93-point edge.
Aljamain Sterling enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Aljamain Sterling finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, TJ Dillashaw 65%.
Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw share 1 common opponent: Henry Cejudo.
Aljamain Sterling carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.