Allan Nascimento vs Jake Hadley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record12-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamTeam Fearless
What's at stake
Allan Nascimento is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jake Hadley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1697
If they lose-18→ 1665
If they win+18→ 1658
If they lose-14→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Allan NascimentoJake Hadley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Allan Nascimento61%
Jake Hadley 39%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Allan Nascimento a 61% favorite over Jake Hadley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Allan Nascimento holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1640, a 43-point edge.
Jake Hadley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jake Hadley 75%.
Allan Nascimento and Jake Hadley share 1 common opponent: Cody Durden.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.