Allan Nascimento vs Jake Hadley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record12-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamTeam Fearless
What's at stake
Allan Nascimento is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jake Hadley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1698
If they lose-18→ 1666
If they win+18→ 1662
If they lose-14→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Allan NascimentoJake Hadley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Hadley55%
Allan Nascimento 45%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Hadley a 55% favorite over Allan Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Allan Nascimento's way (44%).
Allan Nascimento holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1644, a 40-point edge.
Jake Hadley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jake Hadley 75%.
Allan Nascimento and Jake Hadley share 1 common opponent: Cody Durden.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.