Allan Nascimento vs Jesus Aguilar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record12-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'3"
69"Reach62"
125 lbsWeight128 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamVictory Fight Club· 1675 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1700
If they lose-16→ 1668
If they win+16→ 1702
If they lose-16→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Allan NascimentoJesus Aguilar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Allan Nascimento and Jesus Aguilar within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1684 vs 1686), separated by just 2 points.
Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jesus Aguilar 67%.
Allan Nascimento carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.