Combat Edge Intelligence

Allan Nascimento vs Jesus Aguilar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record12-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'3"
69"Reach62"
125 lbsWeight128 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamVictory Fight Club· 1674 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Allan NascimentoNow 1682
If they win+16→ 1698
If they lose-16→ 1666
Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.06
Sig. strikes / min
2.54
56%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.29
52%
Strike defense
61%
1.26
Takedown avg.
1.52
23%
Takedown accuracy
30%
38%
Takedown defense
45%
1.05
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Allan NascimentoJesus Aguilar
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
15 (68%)
Submission
7 (58%)
5 (23%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Jesus Aguilar52%
Allan Nascimento 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jesus Aguilar a 52% favorite over Allan Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1685), separated by just 3 points.

Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Jesus Aguilar 67%.

Allan Nascimento carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.