Combat Edge Intelligence

Allan Nascimento vs Nilson Rojas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record9-0-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'5"
69"Reach-
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamPitbull Martial Arts Center· 1696 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Allan NascimentoNow 1682
If they win+16→ 1698
If they lose-16→ 1666
Nilson RojasNow 1683
If they win+24→ 1707
If they lose-24→ 1659

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.06
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
56%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
52%
Strike defense
TBD
1.26
Takedown avg.
TBD
23%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
38%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.05
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Allan NascimentoNilson Rojas
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (9%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
15 (68%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (23%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Nilson Rojas60%
Allan Nascimento 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nilson Rojas a 60% favorite over Allan Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1683), separated by just 1 points.

Nilson Rojas enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Allan Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Nilson Rojas 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.