Alptekin Ozkilic vs Louis Smolka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-5-0Record17-9-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'9"
TBDReach68"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Bellmore Kickboxing AcademyTeamTeam Oyama
What's at stake
Louis Smolka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alptekin Ozkilic carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1609
If they lose-14→ 1577
If they win+11→ 1641
If they lose-13→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alptekin OzkilicLouis Smolka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louis Smolka62%
Alptekin Ozkilic 38%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Louis Smolka a 62% favorite over Alptekin Ozkilic in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Louis Smolka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1591, a 39-point edge.
Alptekin Ozkilic enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alptekin Ozkilic finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.