Combat Edge Intelligence

Alvaro Herrera vs Devin Powell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-7-0Record10-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74,0"Reach41,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamNostos MMA

What's at stake

Devin Powell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Alvaro Herrera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alvaro HerreraNow 1521
If they win+20→ 1541
If they lose-12→ 1509
Devin PowellNow 1600
If they win+12→ 1612
If they lose-20→ 1580

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.89
Sig. strikes / min
2.88
38%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.67
55%
Strike defense
51%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
33%
Takedown defense
0%
1.13
Submission avg.
0.64

Trajectory

Alvaro HerreraDevin Powell
155016002017201820192020

Win method breakdown

5 (63%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
3 (38%)
Submission
4 (40%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Devin Powell62%
Alvaro Herrera 38%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Devin Powell a 62% favorite over Alvaro Herrera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Devin Powell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1600 to 1521, a 79-point edge.

Alvaro Herrera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alvaro Herrera finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Devin Powell 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.