Combat Edge Intelligence

Alvaro Herrera vs Jordan Rinaldi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

9-7-0Record14-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'10"
74,0"Reach72,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamOne Kick's Gym

What's at stake

Jordan Rinaldi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Alvaro Herrera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alvaro HerreraNow 1521
If they win+20→ 1541
If they lose-12→ 1509
Jordan RinaldiNow 1616
If they win+12→ 1628
If they lose-20→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.89
Sig. strikes / min
1.56
38%
Strike accuracy
35%
3.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
55%
Strike defense
59%
0
Takedown avg.
1.45
TBD
Takedown accuracy
36%
33%
Takedown defense
20%
1.13
Submission avg.
1.16

Trajectory

Alvaro HerreraJordan Rinaldi
15501600201720182019

Win method breakdown

5 (63%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
3 (38%)
Submission
8 (57%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Jordan Rinaldi64%
Alvaro Herrera 36%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Jordan Rinaldi a 64% favorite over Alvaro Herrera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Jordan Rinaldi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1521, a 95-point edge.

Alvaro Herrera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alvaro Herrera finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jordan Rinaldi 64%.

Alvaro Herrera carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.