Alvaro Herrera vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-7-0Record32-22-2
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
74,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1537
If they lose-16→ 1505
If they win+12→ 1533
If they lose-12→ 1509
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alvaro HerreraMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alvaro Herrera64%
Melvin Guillard 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alvaro Herrera a 64% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1521), separated by just 0 points.
Alvaro Herrera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Alvaro Herrera finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.