Alvaro Herrera vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-7-0Record24-13-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
74,0"Reach75″
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Vicente Luque is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Alvaro Herrera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1545
If they lose-8→ 1513
If they win+6→ 1713
If they lose-18→ 1689
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1712 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alvaro HerreraVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque92%
Alvaro Herrera 8%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 92% favorite over Alvaro Herrera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Vicente Luque holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1521, a 186-point edge.
Alvaro Herrera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alvaro Herrera finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.