Combat Edge Intelligence

Alvin Robinson vs Mark Bocek

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-9-0Record12-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Mark Bocek is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Alvin Robinson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alvin RobinsonNow 1626
If they win+19→ 1645
If they lose-13→ 1613
Mark BocekNow 1697
If they win+13→ 1710
If they lose-19→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.57
Sig. strikes / min
2.34
50%
Strike accuracy
44%
1.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
51%
Strike defense
61%
1.24
Takedown avg.
3.65
50%
Takedown accuracy
37%
25%
Takedown defense
31%
1.24
Submission avg.
1.32

Trajectory

Alvin RobinsonMark Bocek
1600165017002012201320142015

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
14 (93%)
Submission
7 (58%)
1 (7%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Mark Bocek72%
Alvin Robinson 28%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Mark Bocek a 72% favorite over Alvin Robinson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Mark Bocek holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1626, a 71-point edge.

Alvin Robinson finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Mark Bocek 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.