Combat Edge Intelligence

Alvin Robinson vs Nate Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-9-0Record21-14-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
145 lbsWeight170 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alvin Robinson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alvin RobinsonNow 1626
If they win+18→ 1644
If they lose-14→ 1612
Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+10→ 1684
If they lose-14→ 1660

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.57
Sig. strikes / min
4.57
50%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
51%
Strike defense
53%
1.24
Takedown avg.
1.05
50%
Takedown accuracy
31%
25%
Takedown defense
42%
1.24
Submission avg.
1.29

Trajectory

Alvin RobinsonNate Diaz
160016502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
14 (93%)
Submission
12 (57%)
1 (7%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Diaz70%
Alvin Robinson 30%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 70% favorite over Alvin Robinson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1626, a 48-point edge.

Alvin Robinson finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.