Combat Edge Intelligence

Alvin Welch vs Gabriel Brown

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record3-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'9"
-Reach69"
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Sik-JitsuTeamShaved Bears MMA· 1581 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alvin WelchNow 1535
If they win+24→ 1559
If they lose-24→ 1511
Gabriel BrownNow 1538
If they win+24→ 1562
If they lose-24→ 1514

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1482 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Alvin WelchGabriel Brown
1550160020252026

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
1 (17%)
Submission
1 (33%)
3 (50%)
Decision
2 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Gabriel Brown55%
Alvin Welch 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Brown a 55% favorite over Alvin Welch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1535 vs 1538), separated by just 3 points.

Alvin Welch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Alvin Welch finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Brown 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.