Alvin Welch vs Shane Howell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record13-10-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Sik-JitsuTeamR-1 MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1559
If they lose-24→ 1511
If they win+16→ 1554
If they lose-16→ 1522
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alvin WelchShane Howell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alvin Welch58%
Shane Howell 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alvin Welch a 58% favorite over Shane Howell in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shane Howell's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1535 vs 1538), separated by just 3 points.
Alvin Welch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shane Howell enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alvin Welch finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Shane Howell 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.