Amanda Lemos vs Mackenzie Dern
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-1Record16-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'4"
65"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Marajo Brothers TeamTeamRVCA
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Amanda Lemos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1702
If they lose-14→ 1670
If they win+14→ 1733
If they lose-18→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1703 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1678 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Amanda LemosMackenzie Dern
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern66%
Amanda Lemos 34%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 66% favorite over Amanda Lemos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1684, a 35-point edge.
Amanda Lemos enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Amanda Lemos finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mackenzie Dern 50%.
Amanda Lemos and Mackenzie Dern share 4 common opponents: Virna Jandiroba, Marina Rodriguez, Jéssica Andrade and Angela Hill.
Amanda Lemos carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.