Amanda Ribas vs Mackenzie Dern
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-7-0Record16-5-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'4"
66"Reach63"
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Marcelo Ribas TeamTeamRVCA
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Amanda Ribas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1637
If they lose-11→ 1605
If they win+11→ 1730
If they lose-21→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1676 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1678 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Amanda RibasMackenzie Dern
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern71%
Amanda Ribas 29%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 71% favorite over Amanda Ribas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1616, a 103-point edge.
Amanda Ribas enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Amanda Ribas finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Mackenzie Dern 50%.
Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern share 2 common opponents: Virna Jandiroba and Marina Rodriguez.
Amanda Ribas carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.