Amar Nessar vs Houston Alexander
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-0Record17-16-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
TBDHeight6'0"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight203 lbs
TeamGrudge Training Center
What's at stake
Amar Nessar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Houston Alexander carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1494
If they lose-25→ 1446
If they win+13→ 1463
If they lose-11→ 1439
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Amar NessarHouston Alexander
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Houston Alexander57%
Amar Nessar 43%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Houston Alexander a 57% favorite over Amar Nessar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Amar Nessar's way (47%).
Amar Nessar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1450, a 21-point edge.
Houston Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Houston Alexander 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.