Amar Nessar vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
TBDHeight-
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
TeamTeam Ryano Waterford· 1566 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1495
If they lose-24→ 1447
If they win+24→ 1495
If they lose-24→ 1447
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Amar NessarMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke62%
Amar Nessar 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 62% favorite over Amar Nessar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Amar Nessar's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1471 vs 1471), separated by just 0 points.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.