Combat Edge Intelligence

Amilcar Alves vs Mike Pierce

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-23-0Record17-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamSports Lab

What's at stake

Mike Pierce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — Amilcar Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Amilcar AlvesNow 1371
If they win+21→ 1392
If they lose-3→ 1368
Mike PierceNow 1715
If they win+3→ 1718
If they lose-21→ 1694

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1523 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.50
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
47%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.36
30%
Strike defense
62%
0
Takedown avg.
3.08
0%
Takedown accuracy
43%
53%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Amilcar AlvesMike Pierce
14001500160017002013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

5 (29%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
5 (29%)
Submission
1 (6%)
7 (41%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Pierce83%
Amilcar Alves 17%Elo baseline: 88%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Pierce a 83% favorite over Amilcar Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (88%).

Mike Pierce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1371, a 344-point edge.

Amilcar Alves enters on a 8-fight loss streak.

Mike Pierce enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Amilcar Alves finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Mike Pierce 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.