Anas Nfaou vs Jonny Carson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record11-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Submission Factory MMATeamSkrap Pack
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1543
If they lose-24→ 1495
If they win+16→ 1533
If they lose-16→ 1501
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Anas NfaouJonny Carson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jonny Carson57%
Anas Nfaou 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jonny Carson a 57% favorite over Anas Nfaou in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Anas Nfaou's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1519 vs 1517), separated by just 2 points.
Jonny Carson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Anas Nfaou finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jonny Carson 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.