Combat Edge Intelligence

Anderson Silva vs Nick Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-11-0Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
77"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Nick Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anderson Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anderson SilvaNow 1718
If they win+13→ 1731
If they lose-11→ 1707
Nick DiazNow 1759
If they win+11→ 1770
If they lose-13→ 1746

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.05
Sig. strikes / min
5.71
62%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.84
61%
Strike defense
60%
0.50
Takedown avg.
1.28
78%
Takedown accuracy
33%
69%
Takedown defense
60%
0.79
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Anderson SilvaNick Diaz
17001750180020202021

Win method breakdown

23 (68%)
KO/TKO
13 (50%)
3 (9%)
Submission
8 (31%)
8 (24%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Nick Diaz78%
Anderson Silva 22%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Nick Diaz a 78% favorite over Anderson Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Nick Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1718, a 41-point edge.

Anderson Silva enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Anderson Silva finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.