Andi Vrtačić vs Ozzy Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record10-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'4"
78.7"Reach79"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Trojan Free Fighters· 1567 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts· 1677 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andi VrtačićOzzy Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Andi Vrtačić52%
Ozzy Diaz 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Andi Vrtačić a 52% favorite over Ozzy Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ozzy Diaz's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1625 vs 1627), separated by just 2 points.
Andi Vrtačić enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Andi Vrtačić finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Ozzy Diaz 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.