Andre Fialho vs Jake Matthews
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-9-0Record23-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
74"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamNexus
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Andre Fialho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1592
If they lose-8→ 1560
If they win+6→ 1759
If they lose-18→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1698 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andre FialhoJake Matthews
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews92%
Andre Fialho 8%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 92% favorite over Andre Fialho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1753 to 1568, a 185-point edge.
Andre Fialho enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Andre Fialho finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jake Matthews 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.