Combat Edge Intelligence

Andre Fialho vs Joaquin Buckley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-9-0Record21-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'8"
74"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMurcielago MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Joaquin Buckley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Andre Fialho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andre FialhoNow 1567
If they win+24→ 1591
If they lose-8→ 1559
Joaquin BuckleyNow 1755
If they win+6→ 1761
If they lose-18→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
3.62
42%
Strike accuracy
36%
6.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.10
46%
Strike defense
59%
0.25
Takedown avg.
1.43
100%
Takedown accuracy
17%
67%
Takedown defense
70%
0
Submission avg.
0.08

Trajectory

Andre FialhoJoaquin Buckley
1550160016501700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (81%)
KO/TKO
15 (71%)
1 (6%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (13%)
Decision
6 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Joaquin Buckley92%
Andre Fialho 8%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Buckley a 92% favorite over Andre Fialho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Joaquin Buckley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1567, a 188-point edge.

Andre Fialho enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Joaquin Buckley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Andre Fialho finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Joaquin Buckley 71%.

Joaquin Buckley carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.