Andre Fialho vs Miguel Baeza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-9-0Record10-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
74"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Miguel Baeza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Andre Fialho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1588
If they lose-12→ 1556
If they win+12→ 1663
If they lose-20→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andre FialhoMiguel Baeza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Miguel Baeza62%
Andre Fialho 38%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Miguel Baeza a 62% favorite over Andre Fialho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Miguel Baeza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1568, a 83-point edge.
Andre Fialho enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andre Fialho finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Miguel Baeza 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.