Andre Fialho vs Tim Means
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-9-0Record33-17-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
74"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamFit NHB
What's at stake
Tim Means is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Andre Fialho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1588
If they lose-12→ 1556
If they win+9→ 1655
If they lose-15→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andre FialhoTim Means
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Andre Fialho52%
Tim Means 48%Elo baseline: 39%
The Combat Edge model makes Andre Fialho a 52% favorite over Tim Means in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tim Means's way (39%).
Tim Means holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1568, a 78-point edge.
Andre Fialho enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Andre Fialho finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.