Andre Winner vs Rafaello Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-13-2Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Rough HouseTeamAMA Fight Club
What's at stake
Rafaello Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Andre Winner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1587
If they lose-11→ 1563
If they win+15→ 1613
If they lose-17→ 1581
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andre WinnerRafaello Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafaello Oliveira55%
Andre Winner 45%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafaello Oliveira a 55% favorite over Andre Winner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Rafaello Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1598 to 1574, a 24-point edge.
Andre Winner enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Andre Winner finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.