Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrea Kabali vs Matt Dwyer

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record11-9-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'4"
-Reach44,0"
169 lbsWeight183 lbs
Black Wolf Kombat AcademyTeamToshido Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrea KabaliNow 1561
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537
Matt DwyerNow 1563
If they win+16→ 1579
If they lose-16→ 1547

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.57
TBD
Strike accuracy
34%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.24
TBD
Strike defense
55%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.44
TBD
Takedown accuracy
10%
TBD
Takedown defense
60%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andrea KabaliMatt Dwyer
155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (75%)
KO/TKO
9 (82%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (25%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Andrea Kabali79%
Matt Dwyer 21%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Andrea Kabali a 79% favorite over Matt Dwyer in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Dwyer's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1563), separated by just 2 points.

Matt Dwyer enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Andrea Kabali finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Matt Dwyer 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.