Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrea Kabali vs Ryan McGillivray

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record12-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Black Wolf Kombat AcademyTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Andrea KabaliNow 1561
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537
Ryan McGillivrayNow 1562
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.27
TBD
Strike accuracy
21%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.20
TBD
Strike defense
52%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
44%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andrea KabaliRyan McGillivray
1550160020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (75%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
0 (0%)
Submission
10 (83%)
1 (25%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Andrea Kabali66%
Ryan McGillivray 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Andrea Kabali a 66% favorite over Ryan McGillivray in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryan McGillivray's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1562), separated by just 1 points.

Andrea Kabali finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ryan McGillivray 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.