Combat Edge Intelligence

Andreas Stahl vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record30-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
42,0"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
RenyiTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Santiago Ponzinibbio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Andreas Stahl carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andreas StahlNow 1620
If they win+20→ 1640
If they lose-12→ 1608
Santiago PonzinibbioNow 1712
If they win+9→ 1721
If they lose-15→ 1697

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1721 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.83
Sig. strikes / min
4.78
38%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.74
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
58%
Strike defense
62%
1.55
Takedown avg.
0.60
67%
Takedown accuracy
27%
80%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andreas StahlSantiago Ponzinibbio
16001650170017502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (44%)
KO/TKO
17 (57%)
1 (6%)
Submission
6 (20%)
8 (50%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Santiago Ponzinibbio61%
Andreas Stahl 39%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Santiago Ponzinibbio a 61% favorite over Andreas Stahl in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Santiago Ponzinibbio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1620, a 92-point edge.

Andreas Stahl enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Andreas Stahl finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.