Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Arlovski vs Brendan Schaub

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-24-0Record10-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"ReachTBD
245 lbsWeight238 lbs
American Top TeamTeamReign MMA

What's at stake

Brendan Schaub is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrei ArlovskiNow 1637
If they win+14→ 1651
If they lose-10→ 1627
Brendan SchaubNow 1682
If they win+14→ 1696
If they lose-18→ 1664

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1688 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.82
Sig. strikes / min
2.92
46%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.22
57%
Strike defense
57%
0.37
Takedown avg.
2.32
35%
Takedown accuracy
46%
77%
Takedown defense
73%
0.20
Submission avg.
0.39

Trajectory

Andrei ArlovskiBrendan Schaub
16501700201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

17 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (70%)
3 (9%)
Submission
1 (10%)
14 (41%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Brendan Schaub78%
Andrei Arlovski 22%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Schaub a 78% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Brendan Schaub holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1637, a 45-point edge.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Brendan Schaub enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Brendan Schaub 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.