Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Arlovski vs Don'Tale Mayes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-24-0Record11-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'6"
77"Reach81"
245 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Top TeamTeamBronx Hill MMA

What's at stake

Andrei Arlovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Don'Tale Mayes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrei ArlovskiNow 1637
If they win+10→ 1647
If they lose-14→ 1623
Don'Tale MayesNow 1580
If they win+19→ 1599
If they lose-13→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.82
Sig. strikes / min
3.49
46%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
57%
Strike defense
47%
0.37
Takedown avg.
0.64
35%
Takedown accuracy
39%
77%
Takedown defense
58%
0.20
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Andrei ArlovskiDon'Tale Mayes
1600165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

17 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
3 (9%)
Submission
1 (9%)
14 (41%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Don'Tale Mayes62%
Andrei Arlovski 38%Elo baseline: 42%

The Combat Edge model makes Don'Tale Mayes a 62% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Arlovski's way (42%).

Andrei Arlovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1580, a 57-point edge.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Don'Tale Mayes 64%.

Don'Tale Mayes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.