Andrei Arlovski vs Don'Tale Mayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record11-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'6"
77"Reach81"
245 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Top TeamTeamBronx Hill MMA
What's at stake
Andrei Arlovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Don'Tale Mayes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1656
If they lose-14→ 1632
If they win+19→ 1595
If they lose-13→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiDon'Tale Mayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Don'Tale Mayes52%
Andrei Arlovski 48%Elo baseline: 40%
The Combat Edge model makes Don'Tale Mayes a 52% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Arlovski's way (40%).
Andrei Arlovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1576, a 70-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Don'Tale Mayes 64%.
Don'Tale Mayes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.