Andrei Arlovski vs Fabrício Werdum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record24-10-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach45,0"
245 lbsWeight246 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWerdum Combat Team
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1663
If they lose-7→ 1639
If they win+7→ 1809
If they lose-17→ 1785
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiFabrício Werdum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrício Werdum68%
Andrei Arlovski 32%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 68% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1646, a 156-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Fabrício Werdum 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.