Andrei Arlovski vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record15-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"Reach 78"
245 lbsWeight259 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1651
If they lose-10→ 1627
If they win+13→ 1716
If they lose-19→ 1684
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiJairzinho Rozenstruik
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jairzinho Rozenstruik79%
Andrei Arlovski 21%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Jairzinho Rozenstruik a 79% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Jairzinho Rozenstruik holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1637, a 66-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.