Combat Edge Intelligence

Andrei Arlovski vs Jake O'Brien

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

34-24-0Record15-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"ReachTBD
245 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Top TeamTeamIntegrated Fighting Academy

What's at stake

Jake O'Brien is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Andrei ArlovskiNow 1646
If they win+14→ 1660
If they lose-10→ 1636
Jake O'BrienNow 1692
If they win+14→ 1706
If they lose-18→ 1674

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.82
Sig. strikes / min
1.32
46%
Strike accuracy
32%
3.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.93
57%
Strike defense
69%
0.37
Takedown avg.
6.44
35%
Takedown accuracy
57%
77%
Takedown defense
25%
0.20
Submission avg.
0.21

Trajectory

Andrei ArlovskiJake O'Brien
1650170020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

17 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
3 (9%)
Submission
3 (20%)
14 (41%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake O'Brien57%
Andrei Arlovski 43%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake O'Brien a 57% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Jake O'Brien holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1646, a 46-point edge.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jake O'Brien enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jake O'Brien 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.