Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record17-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach80"
245 lbsWeight259 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Andrei Arlovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jared Vanderaa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1647
If they lose-14→ 1623
If they win+14→ 1599
If they lose-10→ 1575
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiJared Vanderaa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jared Vanderaa63%
Andrei Arlovski 37%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Jared Vanderaa a 63% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Arlovski's way (43%).
Andrei Arlovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1585, a 52-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jared Vanderaa 82%.
Andrei Arlovski and Jared Vanderaa share 2 common opponents: Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Chase Sherman.
Jared Vanderaa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.